The meeting is on the 27th. I had incorrectly written the 22nd earlier.
I did put out a bid for some January out of the money puts on PXD as a bearish bet going into the OPEC meeting. I have shares of EOG and WLL on the other side of the ledger. My limit order did not hit though, so I'm still marginally long oil going into the OPEC meeting.
I'm not sure if it is unprecedented, but it was very interesting to read about the Russians and Saudis giving joint statements on oil production levels. The Russians may be signalling that they will cut output if OPEC does. Between them they are 45% or so of world production, vs 33% for OPEC alone. If I were the Saudi's I'd only be willing to cut if I knew that everyone was cutting their fair share. Russian cooperation would go a long way toward that. The funny thing is that people are speculating that the sanctions against Russia may cause production declines next year either way. Maybe they can pretend to cooperate without really having to do anything.
It is worth mentioning that much of Russian oil production is not in the hands of state owned companies like Rosneft and Gazprom. But no one should doubt that Putin could order the private companies to cut output if he felt like it.
Next week will be interesting.
I did put out a bid for some January out of the money puts on PXD as a bearish bet going into the OPEC meeting. I have shares of EOG and WLL on the other side of the ledger. My limit order did not hit though, so I'm still marginally long oil going into the OPEC meeting.
I'm not sure if it is unprecedented, but it was very interesting to read about the Russians and Saudis giving joint statements on oil production levels. The Russians may be signalling that they will cut output if OPEC does. Between them they are 45% or so of world production, vs 33% for OPEC alone. If I were the Saudi's I'd only be willing to cut if I knew that everyone was cutting their fair share. Russian cooperation would go a long way toward that. The funny thing is that people are speculating that the sanctions against Russia may cause production declines next year either way. Maybe they can pretend to cooperate without really having to do anything.
It is worth mentioning that much of Russian oil production is not in the hands of state owned companies like Rosneft and Gazprom. But no one should doubt that Putin could order the private companies to cut output if he felt like it.
Next week will be interesting.
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