I realize that this is an incredibly tedious way to present data. But it is useful to scan down and look at these numbers. When I look back to the period prior to the OPEC meeting I do feel that I missed out on an opportunity to profit from put options. I also regret not selling my shares of Whiting.
The Permian Basin companies, which did poorly in September and October have held up reasonably well since the date of my last price check on November 12. The Marcellus companies, which held up well early on have done poorly since. They are reliant on both gas and NGLs, and the price of both have suffered partly due to the warm winter so far. The Bakken companies have been terrible. This is because they are perceived to be high cost producers, and also because there have recently been large discounts for bakken oil off of already low WTI prices. Continental has trimmed spending in the Bakken while maintaining it in the midcontinent region, indicating that it has less favorable economics.
I have not started buying anything yet, and I believe that people are still perhaps being complacent about how far down oil can go.
One curious thing to me is how Suncor, the canadian oil sands giant, is only off 7% from early november. They are a high cost producer and it is interesting that their price is holding up so well.
current discounts vs 52 week high:
No comments:
Post a Comment